Within weeks of the Supreme Court’s IEEPA ruling, a secondary market for tariff refund claims began forming. This shouldn’t surprise anyone familiar with government receivables — wherever large, validated obligations exist with long processing timelines, institutional buyers step in to bridge the gap between when money is owed and when it’s paid. What’s unusual about the IEEPA secondary market is its scale: $166 billion in constitutional refund obligations creates one of the largest government claims markets in U.S. history.
If you’re an importer weighing whether to wait for CBP processing or convert your claim to immediate cash, understanding how this market works — how buyers value claims, what drives pricing, and what the transaction looks like — will help you make a more informed decision.
Why a Secondary Market Exists
The fundamental driver is time value asymmetry. You’re owed a refund. The government will pay it. But CBP’s CAPE system is projected to take 18-36 months to process all claims, and your position in the queue depends on when you file. For importers at the back of the line, the wait could stretch to 2028.
Meanwhile, you have a business to run. That refund capital sitting in the government’s processing queue isn’t available for inventory, payroll, debt reduction, or investment. If your weighted average cost of capital is 8-12% (common for mid-market companies), every year of delay costs you 8-12 cents on every dollar you’re owed — whether you see it on a financial statement or not.
Institutional buyers solve this problem by paying you now and assuming the processing risk and timeline. They have the capital to wait, the infrastructure to manage large portfolios of claims, and the cost of capital advantage that makes the transaction profitable for both sides. The government filing vs. immediate capital analysis provides a detailed framework for evaluating this tradeoff.
Who the Buyers Are
The IEEPA claims market has attracted several categories of institutional buyers, each with different structures and appetites.
Specialty Claims Funds
These are investment funds specifically formed to acquire IEEPA tariff refund claims. They raise capital from institutional investors (pension funds, endowments, family offices) and deploy it exclusively into IEEPA claims. Their advantage is focus — they’ve built deep expertise in CBP processing, customs law, and claim validation. Their typical hold period matches the expected CAPE processing timeline.
Structured Finance Firms
Larger financial institutions that participate in multiple government receivables markets — tax refunds, litigation settlements, insurance claims, bankruptcy distributions — have expanded into IEEPA claims. They bring operational scale and can handle very large transactions ($10M+ claims) efficiently. Some securitize pools of IEEPA claims into tradeable instruments for secondary investors.
Trade Finance Companies
Companies that already provide trade finance services (supply chain financing, purchase order financing, letters of credit) have added IEEPA claim acquisition as a natural extension of their business. They often have existing relationships with importers, which gives them a sourcing advantage.
Advisory Firms with Capital Partners
Some firms — including Tariff Solutions — operate as advisory intermediaries that connect importers with institutional capital. The importer gets the benefit of professional claim preparation and validation, while the capital partner provides the immediate payment. This model is particularly useful for importers who want professional guidance on structuring their recovery across multiple paths. The advisory layer adds value because it ensures the claim is properly documented, the entry data is validated against ACE records, and the recovery strategy is optimized before any capital transaction occurs.
How Buyers Value Claims
Claim valuation isn’t a black box. Buyers use a structured methodology that considers several quantifiable factors. Understanding these factors will help you anticipate what a reasonable offer looks like — and spot offers that are too low.
Face Value Verification
The starting point is the face value of your claim — the total IEEPA duties you paid. Buyers verify this against your ACE entry data, specifically matching duty payments against HTS headings 9903.01 and 9903.02. If your data is clean and complete, face value verification is straightforward. If it’s messy or incomplete, buyers apply a documentation discount.
| Documentation Quality | Typical Impact on Offer |
|---|---|
| Complete ACE data, all entries verified | No discount |
| Minor gaps, most entries verified | 2-5% reduction |
| Significant gaps, partial verification | 5-15% reduction |
| Incomplete data, unverified entries | May decline or require remediation first |
Legal Certainty Assessment
With the Supreme Court ruling final, the legal certainty of IEEPA refund claims is exceptionally high. There’s no appellate risk, no legislative risk, and no constitutional ambiguity. This is one of the most legally certain categories of government receivables in the market — which is why offer prices are generally higher than you’d see in other claims markets (like litigation funding, where legal outcomes are uncertain).
Processing Timeline Estimate
Buyers model the expected time to collect from CBP, which depends on the claim’s likely CAPE queue position, the complexity of the entries, and any potential complications (entry amendments, protests, liquidation disputes). A claim that’s expected to be processed in 6 months commands a higher price than one expected to take 24 months.
Entry Status Mix
Claims involving unliquidated entries (eligible for PSC, the fastest government path) are valued higher than claims involving only liquidated entries (which require protest filing). Claims with entries outside the 180-day protest window may be valued lower because they require CIT litigation — a slower and less certain recovery path.
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Typical Offer Ranges
Offers vary based on the factors above, but here’s a general framework for what the market looks like as of early 2026.
| Claim Profile | Typical Offer Range (% of Face Value) |
|---|---|
| Clean data, mostly unliquidated entries, large claim ($1M+) | 80-90% |
| Clean data, mixed entry status, medium claim ($250K-$1M) | 75-85% |
| Some documentation gaps, liquidated entries, smaller claim | 65-80% |
| Complex entries, documentation issues, CIT-dependent | 55-70% |
These are indicative ranges, not guarantees. Every claim is different, and the market is evolving as more data becomes available about CAPE processing speed and CBP capacity.
The key comparison isn’t between the offer and 100% — it’s between the offer and the present value of waiting 18-36 months for the full refund, adjusted for your cost of capital. A company with a 10% cost of capital that receives 82% today is financially equivalent to receiving 100% in approximately 24 months. If CBP takes longer than 24 months, the immediate payment was actually the better deal.
The CFO guide to IEEPA tariff recovery walks through this present value calculation in detail.
The Transaction Process
Here’s what a typical claim assignment transaction looks like, from initial contact to payment.
Step 1: Initial Screening (Day 1-3)
The buyer reviews high-level information about your claim: approximate total duties paid, number of entries, countries of origin, product categories, and entry status (unliquidated vs. liquidated). This screening determines whether the claim fits the buyer’s criteria and provides an indicative offer range.
Step 2: Data Room and Due Diligence (Day 3-10)
You provide ACE entry data — typically ES-003 reports — under NDA. The buyer’s analysts verify face values, match entries against IEEPA tariff headings, assess documentation completeness, and model the recovery timeline. If you’ve already completed an Impact Assessment, much of this data is already organized and validated, which accelerates due diligence significantly.
Step 3: Formal Offer (Day 10-14)
Based on due diligence, the buyer presents a binding offer specifying the purchase price, the entries covered, and the transaction terms. Offers are typically good for 5-10 business days. Some buyers offer partial assignment — you can sell some claims and file others through the government process.
Step 4: Legal Documentation (Day 14-18)
The assignment is documented through a claim purchase agreement, which includes representations about the validity of the underlying entries, an assignment of rights against the government, and standard commercial terms. Your trade counsel should review the agreement, though the documentation is generally straightforward for clean claims.
Step 5: Payment (Day 18-21)
Upon execution of the agreement, the buyer wires the purchase price. Payment is non-recourse — meaning that if CBP takes longer than expected, reduces the refund, or encounters any processing complications, that’s the buyer’s problem, not yours. You’ve been paid, and the risk transfers entirely.
How IEEPA Compares to Other Claims Markets
The IEEPA secondary market isn’t unique in structure — it follows patterns established in other government claims markets.
Litigation Funding
In litigation funding, institutional buyers invest in lawsuits in exchange for a share of the recovery. IEEPA claims are more attractive because the legal outcome is already determined — there’s no trial risk, no settlement uncertainty. This is why IEEPA offers are typically higher (as a percentage of face value) than litigation funding returns.
Tax Refund Factoring
Companies sometimes sell large tax refund claims to institutional buyers for immediate cash. The dynamics are similar to IEEPA: known obligation, government processing delay, time value asymmetry. Tax refund factoring typically commands 90-95% of face value for clean claims, reflecting shorter processing timelines. IEEPA claims trade at a wider discount because the timeline is less certain.
Bankruptcy Claims Trading
A well-established market exists for trading claims against bankrupt estates. Bankruptcy claims trade at much steeper discounts (often 30-70 cents on the dollar) because the underlying recovery amount is uncertain. IEEPA claims benefit from constitutional certainty — the refund amount is known and the obligation is clear — which supports higher pricing.
Insurance Receivables
Structured settlements and insurance claims can be sold to institutional buyers. The IEEPA market most closely resembles this category: a known obligation from a creditworthy counterparty (the U.S. government) with a variable processing timeline.
What to Watch For
Not all buyers operate the same way. Here are factors to consider when evaluating offers.
Non-Recourse vs. Recourse
The best offers are non-recourse — the buyer assumes all collection risk. Be cautious of offers structured with recourse provisions that could require you to repay if CBP reduces or delays the refund. True claim assignments should transfer risk completely.
Partial Assignment Options
You don’t have to sell your entire claim. Sophisticated buyers will allow you to assign selected entries — perhaps selling claims with longer expected processing times while filing PSCs on unliquidated entries yourself. This hybrid approach often optimizes total recovery. The four recovery paths explains how to structure this.
Documentation Requirements
Buyers who require you to fabricate or inflate documentation are not legitimate. Reputable buyers verify against actual ACE data and government records. The process should be transparent, and you should retain copies of all entry data.
Fee Structures
Some intermediaries charge upfront fees for claim preparation before connecting you with buyers. This isn’t necessarily a red flag, but understand what you’re paying for and whether those fees are deducted from the offer price or charged separately.
Timeline Representations
Be wary of buyers who promise specific CBP processing timelines. Nobody knows exactly how fast CAPE will operate. Reputable buyers price based on a range of timeline scenarios, not guarantees. If someone tells you they can get your refund processed in 60 days through the government, they’re either misinformed or misleading you.
Exclusivity Clauses
Some buyers may request exclusivity periods during which you cannot solicit competing offers. Short exclusivity periods (5-10 business days) are reasonable during active due diligence. Longer periods (30+ days) benefit the buyer at your expense. If you’re asked for extended exclusivity, push back — the market is competitive enough that you shouldn’t need to lock yourself in.
Common Misconceptions About Claim Assignment
Several myths circulate about the secondary market. Let’s address them directly.
”Selling my claim means I’m getting ripped off”
This misunderstands the economics. You’re not losing money — you’re exchanging uncertain future payment for certain present payment. If your cost of capital is 10% and the offer is 82% of face value, the transaction is financially neutral against an expected 24-month wait. If CBP takes longer than 24 months (entirely possible given the scale), the immediate payment was the better deal. The cost of waiting makes this tradeoff concrete.
”I should wait to see how fast CAPE processes before deciding”
There’s logic here — but also risk. By the time CAPE’s processing speed is known, your CAPE queue position will be worse, and the most competitive immediate capital offers may have been allocated. Early data on CAPE performance will help you make better decisions about your remaining claims, but waiting for that data on your entire portfolio may cost more than it saves.
”Only desperate companies sell claims”
Many of the most sophisticated importers — companies with strong balance sheets and no cash urgency — choose claim assignment for strategic reasons. They prefer to redeploy capital immediately into high-return business opportunities rather than letting it earn statutory interest in a government queue. It’s a financial optimization decision, not a distress sale.
”The buyer is taking advantage of the situation”
Claim buyers provide a genuine service: liquidity for illiquid assets. The discount they earn reflects the time value of money, processing risk, and capital cost — not exploitation. In a well-functioning secondary market, competition between buyers ensures that pricing is fair. If you’re getting only one offer, get more. The market is deep enough to support competitive bidding.
Getting Started
The first step isn’t contacting a buyer — it’s understanding your own claim. How much are you owed? What’s the entry status breakdown? Which entries are approaching protest deadlines? What’s the optimal split between government filing and immediate capital?
An Impact Assessment answers all of these questions. It gives you the data foundation you need to evaluate any offer intelligently — and to negotiate from a position of knowledge rather than uncertainty. Learn what an Impact Assessment covers.
Whether you ultimately file through CAPE, sell claims for immediate capital, or use a hybrid approach, the assessment ensures you’re making informed decisions about your company’s money. And if you do decide to engage with the secondary market, having a validated assessment puts you in a stronger negotiating position — you know exactly what your claim is worth, and buyers know that you know.
