We’re now six weeks into the post-ruling world. The Supreme Court struck down IEEPA tariffs on February 20. The CIT ordered refunds on March 4. The CAPE system is processing claims. And approximately $890 million in refunds have been issued out of an estimated $166 billion total.
That means less than 1% of the total has been paid out. But the trajectory matters more than the snapshot, and the trajectory is accelerating. Here’s where things stand as Q2 2026 begins, what’s changed since Q1, and what importers should expect for the rest of the year.
The Big Picture: By the Numbers
Let’s start with the data. These numbers are compiled from CBP releases, court filings, broker reports, and industry tracking.
Refund Processing Dashboard
| Metric | End of Q1 (Mar 31) | Change Since Feb 20 Ruling |
|---|---|---|
| CAPE declarations submitted | ~45,000 | From 0 |
| Declarations accepted and queued | ~32,000 | From 0 |
| Refunds issued (count) | ~5,200 | From 0 |
| Refund value issued | ~$890M | From 0 |
| Average refund per claim | ~$171,000 | N/A |
| Estimated total refund pool | $166B | Unchanged |
| Percentage of pool issued | ~0.54% | From 0 |
| Registered CAPE brokerages | ~1,200 | From ~200 at launch |
What These Numbers Mean
The $890 million figure looks small against $166 billion, but context matters. CAPE has been operational for approximately four weeks in any meaningful capacity. The early refunds are concentrated in the simplest cases — unliquidated entries with clean data and single-broker portfolios. These process fastest because they require the least CBP review.
The ~$171,000 average refund suggests that early filers are predominantly mid-market importers. The largest importers — with exposures in the tens of millions — are still working through data preparation and CAPE filing for their more complex portfolios.
The 32,000 accepted declarations represent approximately 10% of the estimated 330,000+ importers with IEEPA exposure. The remaining 90% haven’t filed yet. If you’re among them, you’re not alone — but you are falling behind the importers who have.
Where Are Importers in the Process?
Based on our assessment data and industry surveys, importers fall into roughly four groups as Q2 begins.
Group 1: Filed and Processing (~10%)
These importers have submitted CAPE declarations and are in the processing queue. Many are already receiving refunds or expect them within 30-60 days. They started preparing data in February or early March, often with professional advisory support, and were ready to file as soon as CAPE expanded access.
Group 2: Preparing to File (~25%)
These importers have started the process — they’ve gathered ACE data, classified their entries, and are validating CAPE declarations. They’ll file within the next 4-8 weeks. Their queue position will be behind Group 1 by approximately 1-2 months.
Group 3: Evaluating Options (~30%)
These importers know about the ruling and their refund rights but haven’t taken concrete action. They’re reading articles (like this one), talking to brokers, considering whether to hire an advisory firm, and trying to decide between government filing and immediate capital. Some are waiting for board approval.
Group 4: Not Yet Engaged (~35%)
These importers either don’t know they have IEEPA exposure, believe their amounts are too small to bother with, or are paralyzed by the complexity of the process. Some haven’t been contacted by their customs broker about the recovery opportunity.
If you’re in Group 3 or 4, this article is especially for you. Every week of delay moves you further from Group 1’s position and closer to the back of a queue that’s growing daily.
CAPE Processing: What We’ve Learned
Six weeks of CAPE operations have taught us things that the pre-launch projections couldn’t predict.
Speed Varies Dramatically by Complexity
The fastest CAPE processing — under 30 days from declaration to refund — is happening on claims that meet all of these criteria:
- PSC-eligible (unliquidated entries)
- Single customs broker
- Clean HTS code mapping with no ambiguity
- Complete documentation attached to the declaration
- Portfolio under 50 entries
Claims that miss any of these criteria are taking 45-90+ days. And claims with multiple brokers, mixed liquidation statuses, or documentation gaps are still in early processing stages with no clear completion date.
Rejections Are Common but Manageable
Approximately 20-25% of initial CAPE declarations have been rejected for data validation errors. The most common issues:
| Error Type | Frequency | Fix Difficulty |
|---|---|---|
| Entry number mismatch with ACE | 35% of rejections | Easy — data entry error |
| Duty amount exceeds ACE record | 25% of rejections | Moderate — requires reconciliation |
| Liquidation status mismatch | 20% of rejections | Moderate — status may have changed |
| Missing or invalid HTS code | 15% of rejections | Easy — code format issue |
| Authorization/IOR mismatch | 5% of rejections | Complex — may need broker coordination |
The key takeaway: data quality is the primary determinant of CAPE processing speed. Importers who took time to prepare and validate their data before filing are experiencing significantly fewer rejections and faster processing than those who rushed to file with unverified data.
CBP Staffing Is the Bottleneck
With approximately 2,500 CBP staff assigned to IEEPA processing and 45,000+ declarations already in the queue, each examiner is handling approximately 18 claims. As declaration volume increases toward the estimated 330,000+ total, the staffing bottleneck will intensify unless CBP secures additional resources.
The CBP staffing analysis we published in March projected a processing timeline of 18-36 months to clear the full queue. Early Q2 data suggests the lower end of that range may be achievable if CBP maintains current processing rates and secures the supplemental budget request currently before Congress.
Legal Landscape: Q2 Developments
The Timeline Motion
The most significant pending legal development is the joint motion filed by approximately 40 importers requesting the CIT set enforceable processing deadlines for CBP. If granted, this could establish:
- A maximum processing time per declaration (e.g., 90 or 120 days from submission)
- Reporting requirements for CBP on processing progress
- Consequences for CBP if processing falls behind schedule
This motion benefits all importers, not just the filing parties. We’re monitoring it closely and will report on any ruling.
Remaining Protest Deadline Concerns
Entries that liquidated in December 2025 and January 2026 have 180-day protest windows that close in June and July 2026. If you have entries liquidated during that period and haven’t filed protests, you have 2-3 months remaining. After the window closes, your only option is CIT litigation — significantly more expensive and slower.
Check your ES-003 report for liquidation dates. If you don’t have one, request it from your broker today.
Congressional Activity
Congress continues to debate the Trade Authority Reform Act and other tariff-related legislation. None of the pending bills affect existing IEEPA refund rights, but they could change the framework for future tariff authority. See our Congressional legislation tracker for details.
The Claim Sale Market: Q2 Pricing
The secondary market for IEEPA claims has matured significantly since February. Pricing has improved for importers as more institutional capital has entered the market and confidence in CBP processing has grown.
Current Market Pricing
| Portfolio Quality | Q1 2026 Range | Current Q2 Range |
|---|---|---|
| Clean, well-documented, PSC-eligible | 82-87% | 85-90% |
| Mixed status, good documentation | 78-84% | 80-87% |
| Complex, some documentation gaps | 72-78% | 75-82% |
| CIT litigation required | 65-75% | 68-78% |
The improvement reflects two factors: CBP is actually issuing refunds (reducing collection risk) and competitive pressure among claim buyers is increasing.
For importers evaluating whether to sell claims for immediate capital or file with the government, the improved pricing narrows the gap between the two options and makes the immediate capital path more attractive than it was even a month ago.
What to Expect in Q2 2026
April-May
- Continued CAPE broker registration expansion
- Processing of first large-portfolio declarations
- Possible CIT ruling on the timeline motion
- Updated IRS quarterly interest rate for statutory interest calculations
May-June
- Approaching protest deadline wave for late-2025 liquidated entries
- Potential supplemental CBP staffing if Congressional appropriation is approved
- Continued acceleration of refund issuance volume
- Industry data suggesting more reliable processing time estimates
By End of Q2
We expect:
- 150,000-200,000 CAPE declarations submitted (up from current ~45,000)
- $3-5 billion in total refunds issued (up from ~$890M)
- Clearer processing time benchmarks based on six months of CAPE data
- Established claim sale market with standardized pricing and documentation
Financial Reporting: How to Account for Your IEEPA Refund
As Q2 begins, many importers are navigating the financial reporting implications of their IEEPA recovery for the first time. Here’s a summary of the key considerations.
Receivable Recognition
Under ASC 450 contingency accounting, you can recognize a receivable for your IEEPA refund when recovery is “probable” and the amount is “reasonably estimable.” Given the Supreme Court ruling and your filed claim, most auditors will agree that these criteria are met once you have a CAPE declaration accepted by CBP.
The receivable amount should be the expected net recovery — gross IEEPA duties plus estimated interest, minus estimated filing and advisory costs. If you’re using a split strategy, account for the government-path and claim-sale-path entries separately.
Cash Flow Forecasting
Your refund timing affects cash flow projections for the remainder of 2026. Based on the processing data:
| Entry Status | Expected Cash Receipt |
|---|---|
| PSC-eligible, filed in CAPE | Q2-Q3 2026 |
| Protest-path, filed in CAPE | Q4 2026 - Q2 2027 |
| CIT litigation | Q2 2027 or later |
| Claim sale | Within 4-8 weeks of agreement |
Incorporate these timelines into your treasury planning and debt management forecasts. The CFO guide to IEEPA recovery provides a detailed financial planning framework.
Tax Planning
Refunds received in 2026 are income in 2026. If your fiscal year aligns with the calendar year, refunds received in Q2-Q4 affect your current-year tax liability. Consider the tax implications when planning estimated tax payments for the remainder of the year.
Your Q2 Action Items
If You Haven’t Started
Week 1: Request your Impact Assessment and send a data request to your broker.
Week 2: Review assessment results. Identify any entries approaching protest deadlines.
Week 3: File protective protests on at-risk entries. Decide on recovery strategy.
Week 4: Begin CAPE filing preparation. Validate data against ACE records.
If You’re in Progress
- Verify your CAPE data meets the updated April validation requirements
- File as soon as data is validated — every day in the queue matters
- Monitor protest deadlines on entries not yet addressed
- Consider selling complex or at-risk entries if they’re dragging down your overall timeline
If You’ve Already Filed
- Enable CAPE status notifications (new April feature)
- Respond to any “Additional Information Required” requests within 5 business days (CBP allows 30, but faster response means faster processing)
- Monitor refund issuance and reconcile against your entry inventory
- Report any discrepancies in refund amounts immediately
Immediate Capital Market: Q2 Pricing and Trends
For importers evaluating the claim sale option, Q2 brings improved market conditions.
Current Pricing Benchmarks
The average claim sale is now closing at 82-88% of face value, up from 75-85% in the first weeks after the ruling. The improvement reflects:
- CBP is actually paying refunds — this validates the underlying asset and reduces buyer risk
- Competition among buyers — more institutional capital has entered the market, creating bidding pressure
- Better data — buyers can now model their returns based on actual processing data rather than projections
Who’s Buying
The claim purchase market has attracted several categories of institutional buyers:
- Specialty claims funds focused on government receivables
- Trade finance companies expanding into IEEPA claims
- Hedge funds with experience in litigation finance
- Private equity firms seeking fixed-return opportunities
The diversity of buyers is good for sellers (importers) — it creates competition that keeps pricing favorable.
Optimal Timing for Claim Sales
If you’re going to sell some or all of your claims, Q2 2026 is a strong window. Processing data is reducing buyer uncertainty (improving pricing), and the market hasn’t yet been flooded with supply from the large wave of importers still preparing to file. As filing rates increase and more claims enter the secondary market, basic supply-demand dynamics may put downward pressure on pricing in Q3 and beyond.
For a framework to evaluate whether claim sale makes sense for your portfolio, see our government filing vs. immediate capital guide.
The Outlook
Six weeks into the post-ruling period, the IEEPA refund process is working. It’s not fast enough for most importers’ preferences, and it won’t be complete for many months — likely well into 2027 for the full $166 billion. But refunds are being issued, CAPE is processing claims, and the administrative machinery is operational.
The importers who fare best will be those who prepared early, filed clean data, and maintained active management of their claims. The importers who fare worst will be those who waited too long, missed deadlines, and entered the queue behind hundreds of thousands of other filers.
What Success Looks Like by End of Q2
By June 30, 2026, well-prepared importers should have:
- All CAPE declarations submitted and accepted
- Protective protests filed on all at-risk entries
- PSC refunds beginning to arrive (for early filers)
- Clear projections for protest-path and CIT-path timelines
- Immediate capital received for any sold entries
- Financial statements updated to reflect receivables and received refunds
If you can check all these boxes by the end of Q2, you’re in the top 10% of importers by preparedness. If you’re missing multiple items, every week of Q2 is an opportunity to close the gap.
Which group will you be in?
Get your free Impact Assessment →
Summary: Q2 2026 State of Play
Here’s the Q2 picture in a single snapshot:
| Factor | Status | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Legal foundation | Settled (Supreme Court + CIT order) | Stable |
| CAPE processing | Operational and accelerating | Positive |
| Filing rate | ~9% of eligible importers | Growing rapidly |
| Refund issuance | ~$890M of ~$166B (~0.54%) | Accelerating |
| Claim sale pricing | 82-90% for clean portfolios | Improving |
| Protest deadline risk | June-July 2026 for late-2025 entries | Urgent |
| Congressional activity | Active, multiple bills | Supportive of importers |
| CBP staffing | ~2,500 dedicated, supplemental requested | Expanding |
Every trend is moving in the right direction for importers — but the benefits accrue disproportionately to those who’ve already filed. Being in the queue while conditions improve is fundamentally different from watching from the sidelines.
Q2 2026 is the critical action window. Protest deadlines are expiring, CAPE is accepting filings, and queue positions are filling. Your Impact Assessment gives you the data you need to act decisively — total exposure, entry statuses, deadlines, and a recommended strategy tailored to your specific portfolio. Request yours today.
