A $166 billion refund pool is attracting exactly the kind of attention you’d expect. Since the Supreme Court struck down IEEPA tariffs on February 20, 2026, importers have been flooded with cold calls, unsolicited emails, and LinkedIn messages from firms promising to “recover your IEEPA tariffs” — many of which didn’t exist six months ago. Some are legitimate. Many are not. And a few are outright dangerous to your claim, your data, and your company.
This isn’t the first time a large-scale government refund event has attracted opportunistic actors. The PPP loan era saw widespread fraud, and the Employee Retention Tax Credit (ERTC) spawned an entire cottage industry of aggressive promoters, many of whom are now under IRS investigation. IEEPA refunds involve even more money — $166 billion in collected duties across more than 330,000 importers — and the filing mechanisms are unfamiliar to most businesses. That combination of large dollar amounts and low familiarity is exactly what bad actors exploit.
Here’s how to protect yourself, your data, and your claim.
The Red Flags: What Scam Operations Look Like
Not every aggressive marketer is a scammer. Some legitimate firms use outbound sales. But there are specific patterns that distinguish firms that will help you from firms that will hurt you. Here are the red flags to watch for:
Upfront Fees Before Any Analysis
A firm asks for payment before they’ve reviewed your entry data, assessed your eligibility, or determined your estimated refund amount. They might call it a “processing fee,” a “setup charge,” or a “retainer.” Whatever the label, paying money before receiving any analysis of your specific situation is a red flag.
Why it matters: Legitimate recovery firms — whether they’re advisory firms, customs brokers, or trade attorneys — can evaluate your basic eligibility from your entry data at little to no cost. The Impact Assessment process, for example, is free and covered by mutual NDA. If a firm needs money from you before they can even tell you whether you qualify, they’re either incompetent or running a volume play where the fees are the product, not the recovery.
Guaranteed Refund Amounts
“We can guarantee you’ll receive $X in refunds.” No one can guarantee a specific dollar amount. While the legal basis for IEEPA refunds is strong — the Supreme Court ruling was unambiguous — the actual amount depends on your specific entries, HTS codes, duty rates, and whether your entries qualify through the available recovery paths. A firm that guarantees a number before reviewing your data is making a promise they can’t keep.
What legitimate firms say instead: “Based on your entry data, your estimated refund is approximately $X, subject to CBP processing and verification.” They show their work. They explain which entries qualify and which might not. They provide a range, not a guarantee.
High-Pressure Tactics and Artificial Urgency
“You have to sign today or you’ll miss the deadline.” “This offer expires Friday.” “We can only take 50 more clients this month.” These tactics are designed to prevent you from doing the one thing that protects you: due diligence.
Yes, there are real deadlines in the IEEPA recovery process. The 180-day protest window is genuine and time-sensitive. But no legitimate firm will pressure you to sign an engagement agreement on a phone call without giving you time to review terms, consult your attorney, and verify the firm’s credentials. The real deadlines are entry-specific and knowable — a legitimate firm will identify your actual deadlines, not manufacture fake ones.
No NDA or Confidentiality Agreement
Your entry data contains sensitive commercial information: what you import, where it comes from, how much you pay in duties, your supplier relationships, your product mix. Any firm that asks for this data without first offering a mutual nondisclosure agreement either doesn’t understand the sensitivity of the data or doesn’t care.
What to expect: A legitimate firm will execute an NDA before requesting any entry data. The NDA should cover both parties, specify the purpose of the data sharing, and restrict the firm’s ability to use your data for anything other than the recovery engagement.
No Track Record in Trade or Customs
The firm was incorporated three weeks ago. Their website mentions “tariff recovery” but has no other content about trade, customs, or import compliance. Their team bios don’t include anyone with CBP, customs broker, or trade law experience. They can’t name a single customs concept beyond “IEEPA refund.”
Why it matters: IEEPA refund recovery requires understanding of CBP systems, entry summary data, HTS classifications, protest procedures, and liquidation mechanics. A firm without demonstrated trade expertise is either outsourcing all the work (which raises data security concerns) or winging it (which raises competence concerns).
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The Comparison: Legitimate Firm vs. Red-Flag Operation
| Factor | Legitimate Firm | Red-Flag Operation |
|---|---|---|
| Initial cost | Free eligibility analysis or assessment | Upfront fees before any analysis |
| Refund estimate | Range based on your actual entry data | Guaranteed specific dollar amount |
| Timeline pressure | Identifies your real deadlines | Creates artificial urgency to sign |
| Data protection | Mutual NDA before any data sharing | Requests data with no confidentiality agreement |
| Team expertise | Licensed customs brokers, trade attorneys, or former CBP officials | No verifiable trade background |
| Fee structure | Contingency (percentage of recovery) or flat fee after analysis | Upfront fees, percentage of “guaranteed” amount |
| References | Can provide client references or case studies | No verifiable past work |
| Contract terms | Clear scope, termination provisions, data handling | Vague terms, long lock-up periods, penalty clauses |
| Communication | Explains process, answers questions, provides documentation | Deflects questions, rushes to signature |
| Regulatory standing | Registered with CBP, state bar membership (if attorney), or clear advisory role | No verifiable registrations or licenses |
How to Vet Any Firm Before Sharing Data
Whether a firm found you or you found them, run through this checklist before sharing any entry data or signing any agreement:
1. Verify Their Identity and Registration
For customs brokers: check CBP’s licensed customs broker database. Every licensed broker has a license number that can be verified. For attorneys: check their state bar membership and, if they claim CIT experience, verify their admission to the Court of International Trade bar. For advisory firms: check their state business registration, incorporation date, and any regulatory filings.
2. Research Their History
How long have they been in business? What did they do before IEEPA refunds became a thing? A firm with a 15-year track record in trade compliance that added IEEPA recovery services in March 2026 is very different from a firm that appeared in March 2026 with no prior history. Search for the firm name, the principals’ names, and any associated entities. Check for complaints, lawsuits, or regulatory actions.
3. Ask Specific Questions
Any firm that’s competent in this space should be able to answer these without hesitation:
- What HTS headings are covered by the IEEPA tariff refund?
- What’s the difference between a PSC and a protest?
- What is the statute of limitations for CIT litigation?
- How does the CAPE system work?
- What’s the liquidation cycle for a typical entry?
If they can’t answer these — or if they deflect with vague responses — they don’t have the expertise to handle your claim. The beginner’s guide to IEEPA refunds covers these basics, and any professional in this space should know them cold.
4. Read the Contract Before You Sign
This sounds obvious, but in the rush to “secure your spot” or “meet the deadline,” importers sometimes sign engagement agreements without reading them carefully. Look for:
- Exclusivity clauses: Does the agreement prevent you from working with anyone else, even on entries the firm isn’t handling?
- Lock-up periods: How long are you committed? Can you terminate if the firm isn’t performing?
- Fee calculations: Is the fee based on the gross refund, the net refund, or something else? Does the fee apply to refunds the firm didn’t actually help obtain?
- Data rights: What happens to your data if you terminate the agreement? Is the firm required to destroy it?
- Assignment provisions: Is the firm asking you to assign your claim to them? If so, do you understand what you’re giving up?
5. Check for Conflicts of Interest
Some firms operate on both sides of the IEEPA recovery market — advising importers on filing while also buying claims for their own portfolio. This isn’t inherently wrong, but it creates a potential conflict. If a firm is recommending you sell your claim rather than file through the government process, and they’re the buyer, you should get an independent assessment of whether that recommendation serves your interest or theirs.
The government filing vs. immediate capital comparison provides an objective framework for evaluating this decision. If a firm won’t walk you through both options honestly, that’s a red flag.
Data Security: What’s at Stake
Your import entry data isn’t just numbers on a spreadsheet. It contains:
- Supplier relationships: Who you buy from, what countries, what prices
- Product specifications: Detailed HTS classifications that reveal your product mix
- Volume data: How much you import and when
- Duty payments: Your total tariff exposure and cost structure
- Business patterns: Seasonal trends, sourcing shifts, supply chain architecture
In the wrong hands, this data could be used by competitors, sold to data brokers, or leveraged against you in future negotiations. A firm that handles this data carelessly — or one that’s collecting data with no intention of actually processing your claim — poses a real risk to your business.
Minimum data security expectations:
- Mutual NDA executed before any data transfer
- Encrypted file transfer (not email attachments to a Gmail address)
- Named individuals who will access your data
- Written data retention and destruction policy
- No sharing of your data with third parties without your consent
The ERTC Parallel: Lessons From the Last Refund Boom
The Employee Retention Tax Credit created a nearly identical dynamic. A large government refund. Millions of eligible businesses. Complex eligibility rules that most businesses didn’t understand. And a flood of “ERTC mills” that charged upfront fees, made wild promises, and filed claims with little regard for accuracy.
The result: the IRS paused ERTC processing entirely in September 2023, launched a voluntary withdrawal program, and opened investigations into promoters. Businesses that used aggressive promoters found themselves facing IRS audits and potential repayment demands — for claims they were told were “guaranteed.”
The IEEPA refund context is different in important ways. The legal basis is a Supreme Court ruling, not a complex tax provision. CBP, not the IRS, is processing claims. And the refund amounts are based on actual duties paid, not estimates of eligible wages. But the human dynamics are identical: large money, unfamiliar process, time pressure, and a flood of new entrants promising easy recovery.
The lesson: the biggest risk isn’t missing your refund — it’s trusting the wrong firm with your claim. A botched filing, a missed deadline, or a poorly executed protest can set your recovery back by months or years. A data breach can cause damage far beyond the refund amount. And a firm that disappears after collecting your upfront fee leaves you worse off than if you’d done nothing.
Spotting Fake Credentials and Manufactured Authority
One of the subtler tactics used by bad actors is manufacturing credibility. They know importers will check credentials, so they create the appearance of legitimacy without the substance. Here’s what to watch for:
Fake testimonials. “We’ve recovered $50 million for our clients.” Ask for specifics. Which clients? Which entries? What timeframe? A firm that’s been operating for three weeks can’t have recovered anything — IEEPA refund processing hasn’t even begun at scale. If testimonials reference pre-IEEPA tariff work, verify that the firm actually existed during the claimed period.
Inflated team credentials. “Our team includes former CBP officials.” Maybe. Or maybe a retired GS-7 clerk is listed as an “advisory board member” they’ve never met. Ask for names, roles, and LinkedIn profiles. Verify employment history independently.
Industry association memberships. Some firms list memberships in trade associations that either don’t exist or don’t vet members. The National Customs Brokers & Forwarders Association of America (NCBFAA) is real. The “American Tariff Recovery Association” probably isn’t. Verify any claimed memberships directly with the organization.
Misleading regulatory language. Phrases like “CBP-authorized recovery specialist” or “federally certified tariff analyst” don’t correspond to any actual credential. CBP authorizes customs brokers. Federal courts admit attorneys. There’s no “tariff recovery specialist” certification. If a firm uses regulatory-sounding titles that you can’t verify, that’s a red flag.
The bottom line: every credential a firm claims should be independently verifiable. If it can’t be checked, it shouldn’t be trusted.
What a Legitimate Recovery Process Looks Like
For comparison, here’s what a credible IEEPA recovery engagement should look like:
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Initial conversation. The firm explains the IEEPA refund landscape, asks about your import history, and determines whether you’re likely eligible. No fees. No commitments.
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NDA execution. Before any data changes hands, both parties sign a mutual NDA.
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Data submission. You provide entry summary data — either directly from ACE or through your customs broker. The firm reviews it and identifies affected entries.
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Impact Assessment. The firm delivers a detailed analysis showing which entries qualify, the estimated refund amount, which recovery paths apply to each entry, and any complications (IOR issues, liquidation status, deadline proximity).
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Engagement decision. Based on the assessment, you decide whether to engage the firm. You’ve seen the analysis. You know the numbers. You can evaluate the fee structure against the expected recovery.
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Filing and tracking. The firm (or your customs broker, coordinated by the firm) files through the appropriate channels — PSC, protest, or CAPE system. You receive regular status updates.
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Recovery. Refunds are processed by CBP and delivered to the importer of record. The firm collects its fee upon successful recovery.
At no point should you be asked to pay money before seeing an analysis of your entries. At no point should you feel pressured to commit before you’re ready. And at every point, you should be able to ask questions and get straight answers.
Protecting Your Claim Going Forward
The IEEPA refund process will unfold over 18-36 months. During that time, you’ll encounter more solicitations, more promises, and more firms entering the market. Here’s how to stay protected:
- Document everything. Keep records of every firm that contacts you, what they promise, and what they request.
- Centralize your data. Know exactly what entry data you’ve shared, with whom, and under what agreements.
- Monitor your filings. If you’ve engaged a firm to file on your behalf, verify through ACE or your customs broker that filings are actually being made.
- Get independent verification. If a firm’s recommendations don’t feel right, get a second opinion. The CFO guide to IEEPA recovery provides a framework for evaluating recovery strategies independently.
- Report bad actors. If you encounter a firm engaging in fraud or deception, report them to CBP’s Office of Trade, the FTC, and your state attorney general.
The IEEPA refund is real. The money is yours. The Supreme Court ruled definitively. But protecting your claim means being as careful about who you trust as you are about meeting your deadlines.
