Fewer than you’d think. And that gap between how many importers have filed and how many should have filed tells you something important about the competitive dynamics of this moment.
Here’s the data: as of late March 2026, approximately 45,000 CAPE declarations have been submitted to CBP. Those declarations represent an estimated 25,000-30,000 unique importers (some importers file multiple declarations for different entry batches). That’s out of an estimated 330,000+ importers who paid IEEPA tariffs during the affected period.
Roughly 8-9% of eligible importers have filed. The other 91% haven’t.
Let’s unpack what that means, why the gap exists, and how it affects your recovery strategy.
The Filing Gap by the Numbers
Who’s Filed
| Importer Category | Est. Total Eligible | Est. Filed | Filing Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Large importers (>$50M annual) | ~5,000 | ~3,000 | ~60% |
| Mid-market ($5M-$50M annual) | ~35,000 | ~12,000 | ~34% |
| Small importers ($1M-$5M annual) | ~90,000 | ~10,000 | ~11% |
| Micro importers (<$1M annual) | ~200,000+ | ~5,000 | ~2.5% |
The pattern is clear: larger importers are filing at much higher rates than smaller ones. This makes intuitive sense — large importers have dedicated trade compliance teams, established broker relationships, and the financial sophistication to act quickly on recovery opportunities.
Where the Money Is
The distribution of refund dollars is even more skewed:
| Category | % of Importers | % of Total Refund Pool |
|---|---|---|
| Large importers | ~1.5% | ~45% |
| Mid-market | ~10.5% | ~35% |
| Small importers | ~27% | ~15% |
| Micro importers | ~61% | ~5% |
Large importers represent less than 2% of the total importer count but approximately 45% of the refund dollars. The mid-market segment is where the biggest gap between filing rate and potential recovery exists — these importers have substantial refunds at stake but haven’t yet acted in large numbers.
Why Haven’t More Importers Filed?
We’ve spoken with hundreds of importers across all size categories. The reasons for not filing cluster into five categories.
Reason 1: “I Don’t Know I’m Eligible”
An estimated 30-40% of eligible importers — particularly micro and small importers — are not aware they have recoverable IEEPA tariff duties. They may know about the Supreme Court ruling in general terms, but haven’t connected it to their specific business.
This is especially common among importers who:
- Use a customs broker for all trade compliance and don’t closely monitor duty types
- Don’t distinguish between IEEPA, Section 301, and Section 232 duties in their accounting
- Import relatively small volumes and don’t track duties at the entry level
If you’re reading this article, you’ve already cleared this hurdle. But if you know other importers who might be unaware, pointing them to the IEEPA eligibility guide is a service to them — and potentially valuable to your industry colleagues.
Reason 2: “I Don’t Know Where to Start”
Approximately 25-30% of non-filers know they’re eligible but feel overwhelmed by the process. They’ve read articles, talked to their broker, maybe attended a webinar — but they haven’t translated knowledge into action.
Common barriers:
- Don’t know which data to request from their broker. The email templates for broker communication solve this directly.
- Don’t understand the recovery paths. The four recovery paths guide lays out the options clearly.
- Don’t know whether to hire an advisory firm. The DIY vs. professional comparison provides a decision framework.
- Feel like they need to have everything organized before starting. They don’t. The process is designed to be iterative — start with what you have.
The first 48 hours guide was written specifically for this group. It breaks the process into manageable steps with specific deadlines.
Reason 3: “My Refund Is Too Small to Bother”
Some importers with smaller IEEPA exposures — under $25,000 — have concluded that the effort isn’t worth the recovery. In some cases, they may be right. In many, they’re wrong.
For PSC-eligible entries, the filing effort is minimal: your broker files the correction through ACE, CBP processes it, and you receive the refund. If your broker charges $50-$200 per PSC, and you have $10,000 in recoverable duties across 5 entries, the net recovery after filing costs is approximately $9,000-$9,750. That’s not a trivial amount.
For importers with genuinely small exposures and complex entry situations (all liquidated, multiple brokers, etc.), the cost-benefit analysis may not favor aggressive recovery. But dismissing any refund under $25,000 as “not worth it” overlooks the simpler cases that require minimal effort.
Reason 4: “I’m Waiting for My Broker to Handle It”
Many importers assume their customs broker will proactively manage IEEPA recovery. Some brokers do — particularly larger brokerages that have built IEEPA recovery into their service offering. But many brokers are waiting for their clients to ask, either because they’re overwhelmed with IEEPA requests from other clients or because they don’t view proactive recovery as part of their standard service.
If you’re waiting for your broker to call you, stop waiting and call them. Send the data request email today. Brokers respond to client requests; they don’t always initiate recovery conversations proactively.
Reason 5: “I’m Waiting for the Right Time”
This is the most expensive reason. Some importers are watching CAPE development, monitoring court filings, waiting for “clarity” before acting. They want to know the exact CAPE procedures, the confirmed interest rate calculation, the processing timeline — before committing to the process.
Here’s the problem: while they wait for clarity, importers who filed with imperfect information are receiving refunds. The information landscape will never be complete. Waiting for certainty is a form of the cost of waiting — and the data shows that early filers are outperforming careful waiters by months.
What the Filing Gap Means for You
Competitive Advantage
If you’re among the first 10% to file, you have a structural advantage. Your claims are in the CAPE queue ahead of 90% of all eligible importers. When the remaining 91% eventually file, they’ll join a queue that’s already deep and growing. The processing time difference between filing now and filing in six months could be 12-24 months.
That advantage has financial value. If your competitor’s refund arrives 18 months after yours, you’ve had 18 months to deploy that capital in your business while they waited. At a 10% cost of capital, early recovery on a $500,000 refund is worth approximately $75,000 in time value.
Queue Position Economics
The CAPE queue is a zero-sum game: your filing position improves when fewer importers file before you, and worsens when more file before you. Every day of delay means more importers filing ahead of you.
Current filing rate: approximately 4,000-5,000 new declarations per week (and accelerating as more brokers gain CAPE access). That means every week you wait, approximately 3,000-4,000 unique importers file ahead of you.
Over a month of delay: approximately 12,000-16,000 additional filers ahead of you in the queue.
Claim Sale Dynamics
If you’re considering selling your claim for immediate capital, the filing gap works in your favor for now. Claim purchasers have limited inventory of claims to buy, and institutional capital is competing for available claims. This keeps pricing favorable for sellers — typically 80-90% of face value for well-documented portfolios.
As more importers enter the market, the supply of claims will increase, which could put downward pressure on pricing. Selling now, while demand exceeds supply, may yield better terms than selling in six months when the market is more saturated.
The Coming Filing Wave
The filing gap won’t last forever. Several factors will drive increased filing activity in the coming months:
Broker Outreach
As more customs brokerages complete CAPE registration and build internal IEEPA recovery capabilities, they’re reaching out to clients proactively. This will bring many “Reason 4” importers into the process.
Industry Association Awareness
Trade associations across affected industries are conducting IEEPA recovery education campaigns. The National Customs Brokers & Forwarders Association of America (NCBFAA), the American Association of Exporters and Importers (AAEI), and sector-specific groups are all pushing awareness.
Advisory Firm Marketing
The recovery advisory market is actively marketing to importers who haven’t yet filed. As these firms expand their outreach, more importers will engage with the process.
Approaching Deadlines
As 180-day protest windows approach expiration for more entries, the urgency for affected importers increases. Deadline pressure will drive a wave of filings in Q2 and Q3 2026.
Professional Advisory Outreach
Advisory firms — including Tariff Solutions — are actively reaching out to importers who haven’t yet started the recovery process. As these firms expand their outreach through direct contact, industry events, and educational content like this article, more importers will enter the filing pipeline. The advisory market is projected to bring approximately 50,000-75,000 additional importers into the process by end of Q3 2026.
Accounting and Legal Advisory
CPAs and business attorneys are beginning to flag IEEPA recovery as part of their regular client advisories. When your accountant or attorney mentions IEEPA recovery during a routine meeting, that’s a powerful motivator for action. This professional-referral channel is slower than direct outreach but reaches importers who might not engage with industry-specific marketing.
Media Coverage
Continued media coverage of IEEPA refunds — particularly stories about importers who have received large refunds — will motivate action from importers who have been passive.
Geographic and Industry Patterns
The filing gap isn’t uniform across geographies or industries. Some segments are significantly more active than others.
By Geography
Importers concentrated in major port cities — Los Angeles, New York/Newark, Houston, Savannah, Seattle — are filing at higher rates than those in inland or smaller-port locations. This likely reflects greater awareness (brokers in major ports handle more IEEPA volume) and better access to recovery advisory services.
If you’re in a secondary market without a robust local trade compliance ecosystem, you may need to be more proactive about seeking advisory support. The process is the same regardless of location, but awareness and support resources are less concentrated.
By Industry
| Industry | Estimated Filing Rate | Typical Exposure |
|---|---|---|
| Electronics | ~45% | High ($500K-$10M+) |
| Automotive parts | ~40% | High ($300K-$5M+) |
| Apparel/textile | ~25% | Moderate ($100K-$2M) |
| Retail chains | ~30% | High ($500K-$50M+) |
| Food/agriculture | ~15% | Low-Moderate ($50K-$500K) |
| Furniture/home goods | ~20% | Moderate ($100K-$1M) |
| Chemical/pharmaceutical | ~35% | High ($200K-$5M+) |
Industries with more sophisticated trade compliance infrastructure and higher per-entry duty values are filing faster. Industries with fragmented, smaller importers are lagging. This creates a competitive dynamic: early-filing industries gain the financial benefit of recovered capital sooner, potentially creating pricing or investment advantages over lagging segments.
By Importer-Broker Relationship
Importers whose customs brokers have proactively offered IEEPA recovery services are filing at approximately 3x the rate of importers whose brokers haven’t reached out. If your broker hasn’t contacted you about IEEPA recovery, take the initiative. Send the data request email today.
What Happens When the Filing Wave Hits
The current 8-9% filing rate won’t persist. As awareness increases, broker outreach expands, and approaching protest deadlines create urgency, filing rates will surge. When that happens:
CAPE Queue Impact
A surge in declarations will test CAPE’s processing capacity. The system currently handles approximately 1,200 claims per week. If filing volume doubles, processing times will increase unless CBP scales staffing proportionally. The CBP supplemental budget request is critical to maintaining processing speed as volume grows.
Claim Sale Market Impact
More importers selling claims means more supply in the secondary market. Basic economics suggests prices may soften (lower percentage of face value) as supply outpaces demand. Importers considering a claim sale may get better pricing now than in six months.
Advisory Firm Capacity
Recovery advisory firms have finite capacity. As demand increases, the best firms will fill their client rosters and may become selective about new engagements. Engaging now, while capacity exists, ensures you get the firm and service level you prefer.
The Bottom Line: File Rate Is Your Signal
The 8-9% filing rate is both a warning and an opportunity. It’s a warning that most importers are leaving money on the table — and if you’re among them, every day of delay costs you queue position and time value. It’s an opportunity because the importers who act now have a structural advantage that will diminish as filing rates increase.
Don’t be part of the 91% who haven’t filed.
Your Next Step
If you know your IEEPA exposure, file your CAPE declarations now.
If you don’t know your exposure, get your Impact Assessment today. The assessment quantifies your refund, identifies your entry statuses, and maps your optimal filing strategy.
If you’re uncertain whether the effort is worth it, consider this: importers who’ve filed are already receiving refunds. Importers who haven’t are in the same position they were six weeks ago — except six weeks further behind in the queue.
Get your free Impact Assessment →
What Non-Filers Are Leaving on the Table
Let’s quantify what the 91% of non-filers are collectively forfeiting.
Time Value Erosion
Assuming the average non-filing importer has $150,000 in IEEPA exposure and a 10% cost of capital, each month of delay costs approximately $1,250 in opportunity cost. Across an estimated 300,000 non-filing importers, that’s approximately $375 million per month in collective time value erosion.
Queue Position Deterioration
Every month the 91% waits, the 9% who’ve filed move further ahead. By the time most non-filers enter the queue, early filers may have already received their refunds. The non-filers will be competing for processing capacity with hundreds of thousands of other late entrants — exactly the kind of processing bottleneck that extends timelines from months to years.
Protest Window Expiration
For non-filers with entries liquidated before October 2025, protest windows have already expired or will expire within weeks. Each expired window converts a simple, low-cost protest filing into either a $15,000-$75,000+ CIT litigation action or a complete loss of that entry’s recovery. The collective value of entries passing protest deadlines runs into the billions.
Market Timing
The claim sale market currently favors sellers because supply (available claims) is relatively limited compared to buyer demand. As more importers enter the market, pricing will likely soften. Non-filers who eventually decide to sell their claims may receive lower prices than those selling today.
Be among the importers who act, not the ones who wait. Your refund is legally established. The only variable is when you receive it — and that depends entirely on when you file. The assessment is free, takes 10 minutes to request, and produces a concrete recovery plan. Start today.
