Doing nothing about your IEEPA tariff refund does not mean you lose it — but it may mean you recover less, wait longer, and lose options. Three specific risks compound the longer you wait: protest deadlines expire on liquidated entries, your filing position in the CAPE queue falls behind importers who prepared early, and the time value of your refund erodes. Each of these factors is quantifiable, and the combined cost of inaction is often significant.
The Supreme Court ruled 6-3 in Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump on February 20, 2026, that all IEEPA tariffs are unconstitutional. The CIT’s March 4 order directed CBP to process refunds. The legal question is resolved. The only remaining risk is procedural — and that risk increases with every week of delay.
Risk 1: Protest deadlines expire
Under 19 U.S.C. Section 1514, the 180-day protest window starts at liquidation — not at the Supreme Court ruling, not at CAPE launch. For entries liquidated in the months following filing, the clock is already running. Once the window closes, your only recourse is CIT litigation under 28 U.S.C. Section 1581(i), which is slower, more expensive, and requires trade counsel.
IEEPA entries began being filed on February 4, 2025. Entries with normal liquidation cycles — approximately 314 days — started liquidating in December 2025. The earliest 180-day protest windows may close as early as June 2026. Every day that passes without identifying which of your entries are approaching deadline is a day closer to losing administrative remedies on those entries.
The practical consequence: an entry with $50,000 in IEEPA duties that passes the protest deadline may require $15,000-$25,000 in legal fees to pursue through CIT litigation — fees that would have been unnecessary with a timely $0 protest filing.
Risk 2: Your CAPE queue position drops
CBP has stated that the CAPE system will process claims sequentially. Importers who file validated declarations first will be processed first. With over 53 million entry lines across 330,000+ importers and approximately 2,500 CBP staff, the processing queue may stretch 18-36 months from start to finish.
Having your data validated and ready to submit on day one of CAPE launch — projected for mid-April 2026 — gives you the best possible filing position. Importers who begin preparing after CAPE launches will join a queue that is already deep and growing. The difference between being in the first processing wave and the third may be 12-24 months of additional delay.
The data preparation itself takes time. Your customs broker needs to pull ES-003 reports from the ACE portal, you need to verify HTS codes and duty amounts against headings 9903.01 and 9903.02, and the data needs to be validated for completeness. Our documentation guide details the specific requirements. Starting this process now, before CAPE launches, is the only way to be ready for day one.
Risk 3: Time value of money erodes your recovery
CBP pays interest on refunds under 19 U.S.C. Section 1505(c). However, the statutory interest rate is set quarterly by the IRS and historically runs below most companies’ weighted average cost of capital. If your estimated refund is $500,000 and your company’s WACC is 10%, every year of delay costs approximately $50,000 in opportunity cost — net of the CBP interest you would receive.
For companies with seasonal capital needs, debt covenants, or near-term investment opportunities, the opportunity cost may be even higher. The CFO guide to IEEPA recovery provides a detailed framework for calculating the present value of your refund under different timeline scenarios.
The compounding effect
Waiting is not a neutral choice. The article identifies a compounding stack: deadlines disappear, queue position worsens, and the refund's economic value decays while capital is tied up.
For a comprehensive walkthrough of how these dynamics fit into the broader recovery process, see our complete guide to IEEPA tariff refunds. These three risks do not operate independently. An importer who waits three months may simultaneously miss protest deadlines on early-liquidated entries, fall to the back of the CAPE queue, and forfeit months of deployment return on the refund capital. The aggregate cost can exceed 20-30% of the original refund value — far more than the discount on an immediate capital offer.
The immediate capital alternative
For importers who face tight deadlines or cannot afford the time value erosion of an 18-36 month CAPE wait, claim assignment delivers non-recourse payment within 14-21 business days. The government filing vs. immediate capital comparison provides a framework for evaluating whether this path makes sense for all or part of your claim portfolio.
The bottom line
An assessment costs nothing. Waiting costs options. Request a confidential Impact Assessment to understand your exposure, deadlines, and choices before any of them expire.
You can also use the eligibility screening tool for an initial qualification check, or review how our assessment process works. Customs brokers advising multiple importers on timing decisions may benefit from the partner referral program, which provides assessment support at no cost to the referring broker.
